Monday, November 22, 2010

The Lemmy Channel: Wisconsin Teams Continue Impressive ATS Run

When we had signed on with The Bucky Channel 2.0, we had planned on more than one post per month to grace the redesigned pages of this site. But, as this is just the second installment of The Lemmy Channel, that clearly hasn't happened. And with fellow Bucky Channel contributer Turtle providing great coverage of the sports betting world in Wisconsin, we haven't been in a rush to throw something up here.
If we know one thing about Wisconsiners? Wisconsians?... er... Wisconsin residents, it's that you love to gamble--so the more gambling content the merrier.

And so, to refresh your memory, we are the folks over at Stock Lemon, providing the main squeeze on stocks, sports wagers and whatever drives in the most page views. Which is the perfect segway into this week's (read: month's) analysis. Since everything on the internet is about pageviews, we're once again here to talk about the Brett Favre vs. Green Bay Packers matchup--as we did in our first post--although that's only 1/4 of our story.

One of the things we pride ourselves on are our against the spread records. Our Free NFL Picks have been over 60% all year (which is good) while our Free NCAA Football Picks have been in the 50% range (not as good). But more impressive, our hindsight picks are a perfect 100%, so travel back in time and place these bets on your local teams.

If you checked out our site at all Sunday (thanks to The Bucky Channel for the giant Lemmy icon on the right side of the page), you noticed that we had the Packers -3 over the Vikings Sunday. Clearly, with a 31-3 win, the Packers covered easily.

What we haven't had, unfortunately, were bets on the Packers in their previous three games. After a 3-3 start (both in real and gambling terms), the Packers have gone 4-0 against the spread, which is even more impressive than their four consecutive straight up wins.

Take a look:

Packers 31, Vikings 3 (W, Packers -3)
Packers 45, Cowboys 7 (W, Packers -7)
Packers 9, Jets 0 (W, Packers +6.5)
Packers 28, Vikings 24 (W, Packers -2.5)

This run is very similar to last season, when after a 4-4 start, the Packers rattled off five straight wins (4-0-1 ATS) and won seven of their last eight, going a perfect 7-0-1 along the way. After these .500 starts, the public loses faith in the Packers after high expectations--and seemingly takes the rest of the year to recover.

Of course, the Packers were favorites in the wild card playoff game against the Cardinals--which finally ended their impressive ATS run, but we won't talk about that.

But the Packers aren't the only Wisconsin team dominating as of late, but against the spread and otherwise. The Wisconsin Badgers, after a 1-5 start against the spread, have won their last five ATS with convincing games against the Big Ten. Check it out:

Wisconsin 48, Michigan 28 (W, -3.5)
Wisconsin 83, Indiana 20 (W, -22.5)
Wisconsin 34, Purdue 13 (W, -20)
Wisconsin 31, Iowa 30 (W, +6.5)
Wisconsin 31, Ohio State 18 (W, +3.5)

Obviously, when teams are winning in general, that correlates to them winning ATS--but not always. The fact that both the pro and college team are on a combined nine game ATS win streak is not something that happens often.

Which means you can look forward to both teams getting the Stock Lemon jinx next week.

Nevertheless, if you can do your best Marty McFly impression and put some money on your home town teams--do it. And if you have been being a homer and laying some holiday cash on the Packers and Badgers, happy holidays to you indeed.


Turtle said...

Personally, I use Skonnies too.

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