Thursday, November 18, 2010

Week 11 Betting Lines **UPDATED**

Well, in my first attempt, I’ll claim a 6-3 record. A big thanks to Chris and Dave on the Packers Therapy podcast for tallying my results for me and giving us a nice advertisement on their show. These guys truly come at the topics from separate angles…you have to give them a listen. On to the FUN…

This week the Packers take on the villainous Minnesota Vikings and former Packer, Ryan Longwell at the Humpy Dump. It should be another close game. **WRONG** Roll the tape!

Brett Favre Interceptions
Line: 2.5
This is a tough one. The Packers Defense has been playing very well and is rounding back into last year’s form. Favre threw 3 in last week’s loss to Chicago and I just don’t see him throwing 3+ two weeks in a row. There’s the possibility of a few garbage time picks but I think this’ll be another close game. I think there’s be more than 2 turnovers and a couple will be interceptions. I’ll take the UNDER.
**+1 - He threw 1 then argued with a coach and possibly cried which are bad, but do not equate to additional interceptions.**

Clay Matthews III Sacks
Line: 2
This guy is a monster but he’s not only a pass rusher. He’s fierce against the run as well which is why he’s being mentioned as an MVP candidate. So while I think he’ll have a big game and disrupt this Vikings offense again, 1.5 sacks is helluva lot of hits still get’s it done. UNDER
**+1 - He had 1. Another sterling performance but 1 is still less than 2.**

Adrian Peterson Rush Yards
Line: 115
He’s a tough SOB who, astonishingly, hasn’t fumbled yet this season. He’s second in the league in rushing to Chris Johnson and he’s just a beast. They’ll try to establish the run early and with the Vikes at home, I think he’ll go OVER that number.
**-1 - The defense was staunch and the Vikings coaching staff is loaded with morons. If this guy was on a team who knew how to use him, it's possible that he may have better numbers than Chris Johnson the last few years...but he's not.**

Spencer Havner Receptions
Line: .5
Somewhat lost in the Mark Tauscher-to-IR flap, was the addition to our favorite touchdown-catchin’, motorcycle-crashin’ former Lion Spencer Havner. I won’t re-hash old news but the linebacker/tight end was a scoring machine towards the end of last season who was surprisingly cut in camp this year. Hopefully he’ll provide some red zone security for Rodgers but I don’t think he’ll be making any catches this week. Since you can’t make a half catch, I’ll take the UNDER.
**+1 - He's just coming back to the team. Yes he was here last year but he's been studying a different playbook all season and he was injured. I also think he's being over-valued by Packer fans. Yes, he caught a flurry of TD's at the end of last season but he was still just the third tight end.**

Total Return Yards for Sam Shields
Line: 100
I’m thinking this will be another close game and I’m bummed they decided to schedule this game on the opening weekend for gun hunting season in Wisconsin but after the 49-yard return in his regular-season debut against the Cowboys, I think he may just get a few quality opportunities. The Viking Special Teams unit has been average like Green Bay’s has…I’m on the fence here but I’ll take the OVER.
**-1 - The Vikings didn't score enough. Simple as that.**

Offensive Line False Starts
Line: 1.5
It gets loud in Minnesota, especially when they pump in additional noise. I SAID IT GETS LOUD THERE. IT GETS LO… OVER
**-1 - Packers took the crowd out early and I think McCarthy may have gotten through to these guys after that debacle in Chicago at the begining of the season as the Packers committed a total of 1 penalty and it was a defensive offsides against Zombo...Frank Zombo...awesome name.**

Number of Times Ted Thompson is Shown during Broadcast
Line: 3.5
I don’t recall them showing him that often during the other games and 4 is a lot. It’s been 3 years; I think the majority is over Thompson as a villain. Get over it Favre family…all of you. UNDER (Honestly, I think Deanna Favre get more TV time.)
**+1 - Was he shown at all? I was trying to shoot a deer in the rain (didn't happen) but from what Chris and Dave from Packers Therapy saw, he didn't appear on the screen and was only mentioned in passing. For the record, Deanna wasn't there either...she may be at home, packing.**

Will Brett Favre Finish the Game?
OK, so this isn’t an over under, but I don’t set the questions and you’ll live. He finished the last match-up at Lambeau with 2 broken bones in his foot (which no one is discussing now), he’s got a bad shoulder from putting on a t-shirt (note to self: start wearing more button-ups), he’s not been pulled from a game yet…YES, he finishes the game!
**+1 - OF COURSE HE DID. He's running the whole damn organization for pete's sake. You think he's gonna pull himself?**

As previously mentioned, this is not going to be a cake-walk by any means. The Vikings are still a talented team and Brett Favre is still a great quarterback. Listen to Packers Therapy on Monday to find out how these things end up.
**5-3 for another week in the black. Sports betting IS cool!**


crichar3 said...

Dave and I are sorry for turning Nick into a Gambling Degenerate.

I suppose it is no surprise that Packers Therapy is sponsored by

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