Thursday, December 2, 2010

Week 13 Betting Lines



Oof…that was a gut punch last week. A tally of 2-5 gives us the first losing week thus far…a no doubter for sure. Thanks again to Chris and Dave with Packers Therapy sponsored by Pokerlistings.com for giving me the opportunity. Also, a big congrats to Dave for going 6-1 last week and making me re-think my life choices. I’ve got a good feeling about this week though as the 49ers head to Lambeau Field.
This is definitely a winnable game for the Packers coming off another tough loss. Without Frank Gore (who apparently fractured his hip heading to the early-bird special on Monday Night) as an option for the 49ers, the Packer Defense should be able to game plan for Brian Westbrook which the Cardinals obviously did not do.
Let’s see what the lines have in store for this week, shall we?

Aaron Rodgers Rush Yards
Line: 30
He led the team last week; not good. The poor showing by the offensive line should inspire them to provide Brandon Jackson with some running lanes and we may get a look at James Starks and possibly see a return of the JK Experiment with Dimitri Nance out with a concussion. I think Rodgers will let the running backs do the running and while I think he’ll get a few as he always does, I’ll take the UNDER.

Packers Rushing Attempts (other then Rodgers)
Line: 19
The 49ers have a good linebacking corps and the Packers are averaging 24.6 carries per game. Last week they had 23 but 12 of those belonged to Aaron Rodgers. They had 30 against the Vikings, 35 against the Cowboys and 26 against the Jets. All were wins and in those wins, Rodgers had 3, 5 and 3 carries respectively. I’m thinking this will be a win and the running game will get back on track. OVER

Total Score
Line: 45
Now, I don’t believe Chris works for Vegas but the line is around 41. I don’t know what the over-under was before the Monday Night game but I’m sure after the loss of Frank Gore, the line slid down so I’m guessing 45 was damn close. Vernon Davis is a Jermichael Finley-type match-up problem but who knows what to expect from Westbrook and Crabtree. Tough choice but I’ll take the OVER.

Total Sacks by the Packers
Line: 3.5
Troy Smith can move around a little bit and I think 4 sacks in a game is a lot. The defense will pressure him into making mistakes instead of taking the sack when he should. UNDER

Touchdowns Allowed by the Packers
Line: 2
This could be on Special Teams (ugh), Defense or Offense. Ted Ginn is a fast fella but one would hope that Slocum got on his unit’s collective ass after the meltdown at the end of last week’s game against Atlanta. That being said, the loss of Gore allows the defense to key on what Brian Westbrook brings to the table along with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. I think this is definitely a push number but the defense has to step-up after getting pushed around last week. I believe they will so I’ll take the UNDER.

Number of Lambeau Leaps
Line: 5
I think Chris threw this in to give me an easy one. Not everyone leaps. Rodgers has got that Title Belt thing (like it or loathe it) and after his Lambeau Leap attempt earlier this year, he may just stick with that. UNDER

James Starks Carries
Line: 5
Everyone has been CLAMORING for this guy to get carries. I’m really not sure why since he hasn’t played hardly a snap in 2 years. Yes, he looked good in college but so did Rashaan Salaam. The problem is, everyone wants Brandon Jackson to be Ryan Grant when there is a reason Jackson was a good third-down back in contrast with Grant. Jackson isn’t bad; they just didn’t run the ball last week (Rant Over). Starks has yet to be activated and even with the anticipated absence of Nance, I don’t see the Packers giving this guy more than 3 carries in a blowout, let alone 5. UNDER

Well, there you have it. A little long winded but I think I was trying to convince myself either way on a few of them. Tough week but as I said before, “I got a good feeling about this one.”

Also, you can follow Chris and Dave on twitter at @PackersTherapy or @PackTherapyDave and find them on Facebook as well as The Bucky Channel.

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