Thursday, December 30, 2010

Week 17 Betting Lines

Here we are...the last of the regular season prop bets. I'm going to have to give myself a little dap, pat myself on the back, toot my own horn (which is quite difficult)...all that stuff as I went 7-1 in last week. Along with that, I've been invited to stay in the Presidential Suite at the Packers Therapy Hotel and Casino bankrolled by Going from the doghouse to the penthouse was unexpected to be sure. Thanks again to Chris and Dave for the opportunity and for the love all season. As a side note, the past episode founr Dave allowing himself to get back on the bandwagon...quality stuff. Other than the Giants limited score, that game went as I had imagined. Eli turned it over, Starks wasn't active, Kuhn scored, yada, yada, yada. Rodgers was a beast and we saw ALL KINDS of Manning Face...what a game. That dominating performance should give this team a load of momentum heading into the Bears game.
So, the Bears are coming to town and they may or may not have a shot at a first-round bye. They should know by gametime but I don't know if that will change their strategy...but who knows what that strategy will be. On one hand, you have a team that has secured a playoff berth and could rest guys to get healthier for the playoffs. Alternately, this is a huge rivalry game; Bears/Packers! You'd have to think that the Bears would want to do what they could to keep the Packers out of the playoffs. Everyone knows this is a dangerous Packers squad and there will be A LOT of Bears fans on Sunday afternoon. However, is that enough to convince Lovie Smith to truely "play his guys" all game? We'll all know the answer to that soon enough but in the meantime, let's see if I need to keep my stuff in the suitcase or if I can unpack for a longer stay.

Aaron Rodgers Quarterback Rating
Line: 94
So, here is how you calculate a Passer Rating:

Got all that? OVER
Green Bay Penalties
Line: 6.5
This Packers team is on a collision course with a team-record for lowest penalties in a season. Hard to believe for a team that had a team-record 18 penalties in the week 3 match-up with this Bears team.While I worry that they may incur some bad penalties, I don't think they'll get to 7. UNDER
Number of Designed Running Plays by Green Bay Running Backs
I think McCarthy has found something in this cobbled-together trio (quartet?). The Packer running backs were leaned on 34 and 33 times in the last two games and, despite losing one of the games, it was successful. However, this is a tough Bears defense with a stout line that could push around the likes of Colledge and Bulaga. The Packers will need the play-action passing game and whether or not the run works, the attempts will make that part of the playbook effective. OVER
Jay Cutler Interceptions
Line: 1.5
Does anything describe this guy better than "smug prick"? OVER
Turnovers by Green Bay
Line: 2.5
This is a good Bears defense but the Packers have a +10 turnover ratio. The Bears ratio is not that good...even with that defense. UNDER
Drops by James Jones
Line: 1.5
He juggles a high percentage of this catches and drops at least one per game. He had a bad game against the Bears (drops, the fumble) so I actually believe he'll get up for this game so I'll take the UNDER.
Touchdowns by John Kuuuuuuuhhhhhnn
Line: 1
Dammit...this is a push number...completely legitimate. I would put $20 on the fact that he gets exactly 1 touchdown. Ugh...OVER
Total Return Yards by Devin Hester
Line: 95
What this guy does will determine how the game goes. Shawn Slocum, if you want a job somewhere next year (not in Green Bay, but somewhere) make sure this unit is disciplined and ready to tackle. If Masthay has a net average of 20 because he kicked them all out of bounds, I'll be happy. Hell, just go for it on 4th down! UNDER
Well, there you have it...the final regular season prop bets. Will there be a Round 1 Betting Lines next week? Wait and see but if I'm in the black again next week...I would tend to think so.
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Nick said...

Totally agreed re: going for it on 4th. I'm a big fan of going for it anyway, but doing it so you don't have to kick to the most dangerous return man in history is just extra incentive. I would hope they'd go for it at any situation that makes sense.

Jimmy said...

Wow that calculation mixed my already perplexed mind and my fear of math! lol
Anyway, thanks for this wonderful explanation!

Jimmy Ross
(Visit my 5Dimes Sportsbook Review Sie)

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