Friday, September 26, 2008

NFL Picks: Week Four

So, I've been pretty bad at this, haven't I? So bad that one of the commenters told me to stick to baseball last week. That's unfortunate, because I've always considered football my specialty. To put some spin on this, I'm not doing that bad with the picks. My problem is I'm putting too many points on the games that I'm losing.

I really don't know what strategy to take anymore. Last week, one of my buddies decided to just pick all the home teams, and rank them in order by how they appeared on the website. Guess what? He finished at the top of the standings.

I'm not ready to take that route yet, but I am determined to turn this thing around. However, I'm a little scared because this seems like a really "easy" week.

1 point - Cincinnati over Cleveland

Both of these AFC North opponents are vastly failing to live up to expectations, especially the Cleveland Browns. While I don't think Derek Anderson is the problem, expect to see him get benched this week in a Browns loss. I am excited for this game however, because I'm starting Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, and Jamal Lewis. You know they're bound to finally have a good fantasy week as they finally face each other's defenses.

2 points - Green Bay over Tampa Bay

I've been putting too many points on the Packers so far, which hasn't been all that bad as of yet. Even though I think the Packers will come out cruising after last week's loss to Dallas, something about playing in Tampa scares me.

3 points - Arizona over New York Jets

I've hearby declared I will pick against the Jets every week as long as Brett Favre is quarterback. It's not because I'm still anti-Favre, it's because he is really, really old. And he plays really, really old. It's starting to look like he's regretting this little comeback of his, too.

4 points - Philadelphia over Chicago

This is a Bears team that turned a lot of heads after their victory over Indianapolis on opening weekend. Since then, however, they have been a major disappointment. The Bears just can't seem to close out games, but that won't be a problem this week. That's because the Bears won't have a lead late into the game to blow. This one is going to be all Eagles.

5 points - Minnesota over Tennessee

I'm buying Tennessee, I am. It's just that Minnesota always seems to win the games they shouldn't, and they lose the games they should. So that's what I'm expecting to happen here.

6 points - Pittsburgh over Baltimore

I haven't really seen this Ravens team in action yet, so I'm looking forward to Monday night. That being said, I have seen this Pittsburgh team, and even though they got hammered by the Eagles last week, I still expect them to come out on top here.

7 points - Carolina over Atlanta

Atlanta is a nice little story. Carolina is a good football team. Case closed.

8 points - Jacksonville over Houston

I've talked about this before, but it's worth mentioning again. Three or four years ago I was looking for a second back for my fantasy team in the fourth round. I had it narrowed down to Thomas Jones, or Houston's Stacey Mack. I went with Mack, and he was garbage. Jones, on the other hand, saw his numbers explode. The next year I wanted to prove that Houston could produce a capable running back, so I took Dominic Davis (Williams). He was a colossal disappointment. This year I took Ahman Green, and he's barely played. For some reason I keep taking Houston running backs and they keep letting me down.

Something tells me though that this Steve Slaton is the real deal, but that's probably only because I play against him this week.

9 points - New Orleans over San Francisco

The Saints let me down a couple of weeks ago when I put 15 points on them to beat the Redskins. Now the Saints are 1-2, and I don't see them starting 1-3. No matter how much better the Niners might be with JTOS under center.

10 points - Buffalo over St. Louis

Don't ever scare me like that again Buffalo! I had 16 points on them last week, and they needed a late field goal just to get past the Raiders. I'm still on the Bills bandwagon though, especially against the St. Louis Rams. Although Trent Green is finally getting the start for the Rams he should have got seven years ago!

11 points - Dallas over Washington

After last week's Packers loss, I tried to convince myself that the Packers just played a lousy game, and that Dallas was overrated. Wrong. Dallas is officially the best team in the National Football League, there's no denying that.

12 points - San Diego over Oakland

While I wasn't impressed with the Chargers efforts to blow the game late last week, that performance against the Jets was more of what I expected to see from San Diego. Expect a big win this week.

13 points - Denver over Kansas City

I'm still not sold on this Broncos team (they could easily be 1-2), but the Chiefs are terrible. Thirteen points terrible.


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