Monday, March 24, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Draft Review

For those of you still prepping for a fantasy baseball draft, we wanted to give you one more piece of fantasy draft advice before you settle in by a computer for three hours (that, and we told our league we'd do some sort of review for them). Enjoy, and remember, draft's are like snowflakes, no two are ever the same. (OK, that was stupid).

Round 1
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes
4. David Wright
5. Matt Holliday
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Johan Santana
8. Chase Utley
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Prince Fielder
11. Ryan Braun
12. Ryan Howard
13. Albert Pujols (Winks)
14. Jake Peavy
15. Carl Crawford (Bear)
16. Alfonso Soriano

Winks: It's hard to say who the best pick in a first round is, because unless you really reach for a guy (I've seen Fielder go at the number two pick already), you can't go wrong. Keep in mind during these, we were in a 24 round, 16 man draft, no question the biggest draft I've ever done. I don't see anything wrong with any of these picks. I'm surprised I was able to get Pujols where I did, although some people are concerned with the injury risk. A good round for everybody involved, although nobody goes into a draft hoping for Alfonso Soriano or Carl Crawford in the first round.

Bear: No one is truly going to go wrong in the first round by drafting any of the usual suspects. Either way you choose to go, you are going to get a stud. If a top player does end up struggling then its just bad luck. My first three or four rounds I typically go for "Best Available" and ignore position. That being said I drafted Carl Crawford, the one guy I said I didn't want going into the draft but in my opinion was the best player available. At pick 15, I couldn't over look the possibility of a 100-20-110-5-.290 guy. Not saying he'll hit those numbers, but after years of those kinds of predictions he has to cash in sometime.... right??? Right???? I really like Pujols at 13, injury risk aside, Pujols is one of the safest players to own in fantasy baseball, you know what he'll bring.

Round 2
1. David Ortiz
2. Carlos Beltran (Bear)
3. Ichiro Suzuki
4. Grady Sizemore (Winks)
5. Vladimir Guerrero
6. Ben Sheets
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Carlos Lee
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Brandon Webb
11. Lance Berkman
12. Mark Teixeira
13. B.J. Upton
14. Curtis Granderson
15. Justin Morneau
16. Victor Martinez

Winks: I like everyone of these picks in the second round, except for the Sheets. On draft day, you really can't go round in the first couple rounds. Sure maybe you'd like Carlos Lee over Brandon Phillips, but that just depends on who you like and who you've already drafted. I went with Grady because I'm a Grady fan, although I may have took him a few spots too early. I can't understand the Sheets pick here, Brewer fan or not. I'm as big of a Brewer fan as the next guy, and I was able to get Sheets as my fourth starting pitcher in another league. You can't always be a homer in these things, it'll kill you.

Bear: Ben Sheets in the second round. Yikes. I'd say the guy who drafted Sheets is about as big as a homer as there could be. But really, even if he tops out with a "healthy" Sheets season, hes on about the same level as Sabathia, Oswalt, and Zambrano and a 4th rounder at best. I took Beltran because I like the 100-35-100-20 potential. In terms of a 2B I like Upton better than Phillips. Using peripherals as a indication, Upton's Slugging % was 23 points higher and his On Base % was 55 points better. This suggests that Upton has a better plate discipline and is doing more with his hits. Plus I just like what the Rays have around them this year. Not sure I like taking a catcher in the 2nd round, but hard to argue with 25-100-.300 from the C-spot, and the fact that if you want him, and you are sitting at that 1 position, you know he won't be around come round 4, pick 64.

Round 3
1. Alex Rios
2. Russell Martin
3. Magglio Ordonez
4. Adam Dunn
5. Brian Roberts
6. Aramis Ramirez
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. C.C. Sabathia
9. Erik Bedard
10. Chone Figgins
11. Roy Oswalt
12. Josh Beckett
13. Cole Hamels (Winks)
14. Derek Jeter
15. Derrek Lee (Bear)
16. Justin Verlander

Winks: Might have taken Hamels too early here too, although I've liked the guy since he came into the league. Sometimes you'll see people draft guys higher than they should because they had them the year before, that's what I did here. Could have maybe went for Papelbon or Haren, although I did get Haren later. Alex Rios as the first guy in the 3rd round is a little too high for me I would have taken Mags. I'm not an Adam Dunn fan either, but to each his own.

Bear: Winks placed a lot of stock in Hamels but I feel its just. He's a great pitcher, and an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.15 with K totals around 200 is a great candidate to be a top 5 pitcher. Add that to a strong Phillies offense, and you are looking at an 18 game winner too. Picks I don't like: Roberts - I realize 2B is a premium category, but with Roberts you are drafting purely for SB. Hes 30 and his days of 15+ homers are likely behind him. Plus he's on a very young, inconsistent team like Baltimore, so his runs will likely be affected as well. Jeter - When are people going to start passing on this guy in the first 5 rounds. Seriously, you can get Michael Young this year in the 5th round in our league, for basically the same stats save runs. In roto leagues Jeter is much more valuable, but in head-to-head he just isn't.

Round 4
1. Robinson Cano
2. Ian Kinsler (Bear)
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Dan Haren (Winks)
5. Travis Hafner
6. Carlos Zambrano
7. Carlos Guillen
8. Aaron Harang
9. Felix Hernandez
10. Rickie Weeks
11. John Smoltz
12. Garrett Atkins
13. Eric Byrnes
14. Bobby Abreu
15. Scott Kazmir
16. Francisco Rodriguez

Winks: Again, came away with Haren, happy about that, as I was trying to solidify my pitching. I wouldn't have taken Ian Kinsler, but Bear goes by the moniker "Mr. Fantasy Sports", so who knows what I think. Atkins and Abreu are solid picks in this round, as is Harang.

Bear: Homer came out in me with this round. I see Kinsler hitting 100-25-80-25 a top the Rangers lineup, plus he plays in a hitters paradise in Rangers Ballpark, but the real reason I took him, he absolutely carried me in the first half of last season. I did reach with Kinsler, but hes a player I wanted, and the last of 2nd tier 2B. Weeks was a bit of a stretch, but he has awesome potential. Abreu is very underrated, as is Atkins. Both are good picks. Not a big Guillen fan but he does have SS,1B which is nice, probably the last year of SS availability with Renteria there.

Round 5
1. Michael Young
2. Corey Hart
3. J.J. Putz
4. Joe Mauer
5. Joe Nathan
6. Gary Sheffield
7. Chipper Jones
8. Brian McCann
9. Hunter Pence
10. Fausto Carmona
11. Carlos Pena
12. Jorge Posada
13. Nick Markakis (Winks)
14. John Lackey
15. Bobby Jenks (Bear)
16. Chris Young

Winks: I came away with Markakis this late in the draft, and I think it was the steal of the night. Markakis is loved by a lot of people this year, going as high as the mid-30's. To get him in the mid-70's is something I'm very happy with. Carlos Pena is a nice grab in this round too. Three more catchers went in this round, I probably would have gone with McCann.

Bear: After McCann and Mauer went, the catchers should have stayed silent for 4-5 more rounds but someone selected Posada. Posada's career BA is .277, last year he hit .338. It's not happening again. He's 36, and will probably hit 15 homers. Not a smart pick. Especially when Nick Markakis is still there. Winks got away with murder, 100-25-100-12-.310 in the 5th round is sick, I was hoping and praying he'd fall to more spots to me, but he didn't. I took Jenks who, barring injury, is a solid candidate for 40 saves and last of the 2nd tier closers with K-Rod and Nathan. Pena probably went where he should have but, a player whose HR totals the last 5 years have gone 18, 27, 18, 1, 46 does scare me. Last season he also batted 30 points above his career average. Pence and Hart are great pick ups, both will be fantasy OF main stays for years to come.

Round 6
1. Jason Bay
2. Tim Lincecum (Bear)
3. Torii Hunter
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Winks)
5. Miguel Tejada
6. Billy Wagner
7. Ivan Rodriguez
8. Rafael Furcal
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Mariano Rivera
11. Juan Pierre
12. Jose Valverde
13. Takashi Saito
14. Vernon Wells
15. Chris Young
16. Howie Kendrick

Winks: Took Ryan Zimmerman to grab a 3rd basemen, which is weak this year. Love the Kendrick pick here, but there's no way in hell I would have grabbed Furcal. Judging from past teams, he's the single least effective fantasy player I've ever had in any sport. And that includes Stacey Mack.

Bear: I disagree with Winks on the Furcal pick, he has looked phenomenal this spring and seems to past his days of an injured ankle. I say he reverts back to his 2006 numbers where he hit 15 and stole 37. Wells is great pick, as was Gonzalez. I took Lincecum, I like his K projections around 180 and his ERA and WHIP should be stellar. I probably won't get anymore than 10 wins out of him however, because the Giants offense is awful. Pierre was a terrible pick, and a waste of an OF spot. One catagory guys are never an option this high, and he'll be battling Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp for at bats. Closers were a theme, I don't mind Wagner but Saito is one rough stretch away from the uber-talented Jonathan Broxton taking over, and Valverde has been taken every other year off: ERA 2.15, 4.25, 2.44, 5.84, 2.66. He was hot last year for a tough team in Arizona, but this year I'll pass and take a lower risk guy down further in the draft.

Round 7
1. Shane Victorino
2. Roy Halladay
3. Brad Hawpe
4. Trevor Hoffman
5. Kenji Johjima
6. Javier Vazquez
7. Jermaine Dye
8. Huston Street
9. Paul Konerko
10. Dontrelle Willis
11. Dan Uggla
12. Kelvim Escobar
13. Edgar Renteria (Winks)
14. Daisuke Matsuzaka
15. Rich Hill (Bear)
16. Chien-Ming Wang

Winks: Wasn't in love with my Renteria grab, but I needed a shortstop, and Tigers are popular this year with that lineup. A lot of good value in this round, I especially like Bear's pick of Rich Hill, Cubs hatred and all.

Bear: I really love Rich Hill. That's what it comes down to, a giant man crush, and I fully expect him to have 200 K's, win 18 and keep his ERA under 4. Uggla is a nice source of power at the 2B spot and Victorino and Hawpe are great value grabs. Wang is really inflated by his wins from an offensive juggernaut like the Yankees. He doesn't do much else, but could have an ERA of around 3.80. Another catcher taken... Look at these 2007 season stats Player A: 504 AB/57-14-61-0-.287 Player B: 457 AB/56-11-55-2-.263. Now consider that Player A(Kenji Jojima) was taken in round 7 and Player B(Ronny Paulino) was taken in round 22. That's some 240 picks for 24 points in the BA and 3 homers while having less steals. This is why, outside of the top 4 catchers, it just doesn't make sense to take them until the end, the gap just isn't big enough for it to matter.

Round 8
1. Orlando Cabrera
2. J.J. Hardy (Bear)
3. Yovani Gallardo
4. Kelly Johnson (Winks)
5. James Shields
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Delmon Young
8. Manny Corpas
9. Andruw Jones
10. John Maine
11. Francisco Liriano
12. Francisco Cordero
13. Chad Billingsley
14. Nick Swisher
15. Adrian Beltre
16. Matt Cain

Winks: Went for Kelly Johnson in the 8th in an uncharacteristically strong year for second basemen. Swisher and Gallardo are fine picks in this round. I wouldn't have taken Matt Cain (remember, I was told to not take any Giants by someone who saw them in Spring Training). Liriano you have to have faith in, put that's a pick that could pay big dividends.

Bear: Hardy was the last decent SS left in my book, so I felt like I had to grab him. Now I'm hoping he repeats his first half and not his second. He'll probably do something in the middle. Shields is a good pick, and its nice to have the power out of Swisher and Matsui out of the 8th round. I like Kelly Johnson and Andrew Jones. In fact the only pick I didn't like this round was either my Hardy pick or Manny Corpas. He only took over after Brian Fuentes struggled down the stretch, and he didn't pitch that bad. That would be enough for me to shy away and grab a more sure thing in Co-Co or Rafael Soriano.

Round 9
1. Jered Weaver
2. Jeff Francoeur
3. Brett Myers
4. A.J. Burnett
5. Todd Helton
6. Rafael Soriano
7. Mike Lowell
8. Hank Blalock
9. Placido Polanco
10. Ian Snell
11. Jim Thome
12. Jeff Francis
13. Dustin McGowan (Winks)
14. Ryan Garko
15. Alex Gordon (Bear)
16. Matt Kemp

Winks: I'm a big Dustin McGowan fan, but I probably could have got him later. Polanco and Snell are good picks here, I don't like the Mike Lowell pick though.

Bear: Picks I love are Francour, Myers, Gordon, Snell, and Kemp. All great values. Thome disappears for large stretches at the point in his career and its only Util, available. Garko should be good, and Burnett is solid. I hate the Lowell pick. He's only had 2 years good enough to justify this draft position in his 10 year career, and those came 5 years apart. I'll take a higher potential guy in Longoria or Gordon.

Round 10
1. Eric Gagne
2. Oliver Perez (Bear)
3. Pat Burrell
4. Kosuke Fukudome (Winks)
5. Ken Griffey Jr.
6. Tim Hudson
7. Pedro Martinez
8. Jeremy Bonderman
9. Joe Borowski
10. Todd Jones
11. Josh Hamilton
12. Aaron Rowand
13. Jacoby Ellsbury
14. Brad Penny
15. Jeremy Hermida
16. James Loney

Winks: Went with Fukudome in the spot where he's typically falling. Ellsbury, Penny, and Hamilton could all be good picks too.

Bear: Hamilton is going to be a stud. Excellent value for round 10. Everyone else has there strengths. A couple of pitchers I noticed have fallen in drafts and are great grabs if they are still around in round 10-12, Penny, Bonderman, and Perez. All are on high profile teams that will get 12-15 wins they also have 2nd strengths such as Penny in his ERA, Perez in his K's and Bonderman as a solid K's and ERA contributor.

Round 11
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Raul Ibanez
3. Chad Cordero
4. Jhonny Peralta
5. Bill Hall
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
7. Joey Votto
8. Moises Alou
9. Johnny Damon
10. Dustin Pedroia
11. Jason Isringhausen
12. Ted Lilly
13. Matt Capps (Winks)
14. Kevin Kouzmanoff
15. Michael Cuddyer (Bear)
16. Edwin Encarnacion

Winks: Needed a closer, went with Matt Capps. Not the ideal number one closer for a team, but I'm hoping someone will pop up on the waiver wires. Peralta is a good pick in this round, Encarnacion will probably be a disappointment.

Bear: I agree with Winks, I think Encarnacion will disappoint. If you are taking Edwin based on power implications, his average went up while his slugging percentage when went down nearly 35 points. His stat line looks more like Casey Blake than Ryan Zimmerman. Give me Kouzmanoff, Longoria, or Glaus instead, in fact I'd take actually I'll take Blake, in round 17 over Edwin in round 11. Joba is a great pick if hes a starter, and a good pick if hes a reliever. One of the biggest mistakes you can do as a fantasy owner is to ignore middle relievers, they are imperative in giving you garbage wins, and K's and keep your ERA and WHIP's low. You should always have your RP and Util-P spots filled with relievers when your SP's aren't taking them up. Ibanez and Cuddyer are great safe picks, you know what you are going to get. Matt Capps is actually a good bet to be a top 15 closer this year.

Round 12
1. Adam Wainwright
2. Joakim Soria (Bear)
3. Aaron Hill
4. Geovany Soto (Winks)
5. Luis Castillo
6. Troy Glaus
7. Justin Upton
8. Kevin Youkilis
9. Josh Willingham
10. Tony Pena
11. Brandon Lyon
12. Khalil Greene
13. Evan Longoria
14. Brad Lidge
15. Phil Hughes
16. Willy Taveras

Winks: Loving those Cubbies this year as I grabbed Soto. Mainly, I just needed a catcher, and he was the best option. I wish I would have had another chance to grab Evan Longoria, maybe even Brad Lidge. I would have stayed away from Adam Wainwright, although he could have a decent year.

Bear: Soto is decent value here in round 12, but still, there are better players that can fill your roster out. Think of the catcher position like Defenses in fantasy football. 12-15 are great rounds to take fliers on possible sleepers. Longoria, Hughes, Upton, Soria, and Soto all fit that bill. Greene and Glaus bring good power numbers in round 12. I'm assuming Tony Pena was draft on the thought of being the guy, and oddly enough Brandon Lyon was taken after him. Either way, both will prove to be solid RP's whether they are closing or not.

Round 13
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Orlando Hudson
3. Josh Fields
4. B.J. Ryan
5. Melky Cabrera
6. George Sherrill
7. Frank Thomas
8. Derek Lowe
9. Rick Ankiel
10. Andy Pettitte
11. Carlos Delgado
12. Jose Guillen
13. Mike Cameron (Winks)
14. Kevin Gregg
15. Rich Harden (Bear)
16. Bronson Arroyo

Winks: Mike Cameron was a stretch here for me, but I wanted a Brewer and I wanted that Brewer to be Mike Cameron. Last year in this league, I took Francisco Liriano in round 13. He never played an inning, but I still won the league. Thought it'd be safe to take a chance in this round. Fields and Delgado should provide decent value here, as with Harden. Best pick of the round in my opinion is Kevin Gregg. They say don't trust a man with two last names, but always trust a Gregg with two G's.

Bear: Rich Harden was a target of mine. I'm sure I'll get 2 good weeks from him.... But if he does stay healthy this season, hes a top 20 pitcher. I really like Buchholtz and Ankiel. A couple guys I would have passed on were Thomas, Delgado, and Guillen.

Round 14
1. J.R. Towles
2. Carlos Marmol (Bear)
3. Joe Blanton
4. Matt Garza (Winks)
5. Troy Percival
6. Geoff Jenkins
7. J.D. Drew
8. Mike Napoli
9. Jason Bartlett
10. A.J. Pierzynski
11. Ubaldo Jimenez
12. Brian Wilson
13. Billy Butler
14. Kazuo Matsui
15. Ty Wigginton
16. Michael Bourn

Winks: Like the Marmol pick here for Bear, I took Garza because of my Devil Rays bias. (Just caught myself, still not used to just the "Rays".) Rosters are starting to be filled out in this round, and with how deep this league is, I guess it's ok to take chances. But I'll be the first to admit I'm no fantasy expert (although, again, I won this league last year), and here's the point of the draft where guys are being taken that I've never heard of.

Bear: As a huge Brewer fan, I hate the Cubs. Thank god in fantasy land I don't have to hate the stats next to the name. I love Carlos Marmol, even if he doesn't close. He posted a 1.45 ERA while K'ing 96 over 69.1 innings. Wigginton is a nice pick here he offers 1B, 2B, and 3B flexibility and is a safe bet to smack 25 homers this year. He was sandwiched between two other Astros that are clearly SB picks. Still too early for that in my mind. Joe Blanton is a good value and Butler and Jimenez are good risks.

Round 15
1. Jeremy Accardo
2. Zack Greinke
3. Curt Schilling
4. Jonathan Broxton
5. C.J. Wilson
6. Mark Reynolds
7. David DeJesus
8. Adam Jones
9. Jeremy Guthrie
10. Orlando Hernandez
11. Mark Buehrle
12. Gil Meche
13. Yunel Escobar (Winks)
14. Conor Jackson
15. Jeff Kent (Bear)
16. Jack Cust

Winks: Took Escobar just because he's flexible. Don't mind the picks of Schilling, Pac Man Jones, Meche, or Jackson. Don't like Jeff Kent, and Jack Cust reminds me of Chris Shelton, so I would have stayed away from those guys.

Bear: Jones and Escobar are have good potential. Meanwhile Meche and Buehrle have been sliding the past couple years. Broxton should be a stud. Jeff Kent is usually someone I would never draft but in round 15 I'm getting a guy who still can hit 75-20-75-.300 at the age of 40. I'll take that kind of production out in a Util spot.

Round 16
1. Hideki Okajima
2. Adam LaRoche (Bear)
3. Freddy Sanchez
4. Pat Neshek (Winks)
5. Tom Gorzelanny
6. Aubrey Huff
7. Scot Shields
8. Heath Bell
9. Colby Rasmus
10. Wily Mo Pena
11. Rocco Baldelli
12. Mark Teahen
13. Jon Lester
14. Jason Varitek
15. Rafael Betancourt
16. Homer Bailey

Winks: Homer Bailey will come around, good pick there. Baldelli might not end up playing at all again this year, at least not in Tampa. Tom Gorzelanny is probably decent in this round, and I'm not in love with my Neshek pick at all. Although someone took Okajima this round too, that just again shows how deep this league is, in the fact that you take relievers for strikeout, ERA, and WHIP help.

Bear: A bunch of middle relievers went here. All smart picks too, Betancourt, Okajima, Shields, Neshek and Bell will all be main stays on their respective teams. Baldelli's career looks to be over due to some sort of muscle dysfuction. 6 years ago he was considered the next Joe DiMaggio. Kind of sad when you think about it. Rasmus will be a stud when hes called up, and Teahan is a great value pick. I like Wily Mo this year as well, he could put up some big homer numbers in Washington's new hitter friendlier ballpark.

Round 17
1. Stephen Drew
2. Scott Rolen
3. Garret Anderson
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Carlos Villanueva
6. Kerry Wood
7. Corey Patterson
8. Nate McLouth
9. Casey Blake
10. Joel Zumaya
11. Chris Duncan
12. Nomar Garciaparra
13. Casey Kotchman (Winks)
14. Greg Maddux
15. Eric Chavez (Bear)
16. Mike Jacobs

Winks: Casey Kotchman I took because I've heard of him before and I needed depth. We're at the 2 1/2 hour mark in this draft, and I'm just taking guys I'm comfortable with. I didn't do a lot of research coming in, which I could regret. I will say thought that the best way to do research is do just do a draft before your main draft. Just sign up for a public league or something, it doesn't matter. It's good to get a draft under your belt before your real thing.

Bear: Picks I like - Drew, Anderson, Duncan. Picks I hate - Chavez and Rolen. These two 3B's are done offensively. Honestly right before this pick I somehow talked myself into thinking Chavez could revert to his pre-injured days about 3 years ago. It won't happen, an I'm sure this will be a wasted pick.

Round 18
1. Andrew Miller
2. Lastings Milledge (Bear)
3. Bengie Molina
4. Barry Zito (Winks)
5. Richie Sexson
6. Ramon Hernandez
7. Akinori Iwamura
8. Randy Johnson
9. Ryan Freel
10. Gary Matthews Jr.
11. Ryan Theriot
12. Tom Glavine
13. Cameron Maybin
14. Felipe Lopez
15. Franklin Morales
16. Tadahito Iguchi

Winks: Sexson might be a great pick here with the way he's been playing in the Spring. These late rounds are usually the rounds where old vets or young prospects are usually taken, I followed that trend with Barry Zito.

Bear: Winks is right on. I love Milledge here. Maybin looks to be a SB only threat, but we are in the rounds where its safe to pick those players. Two guys I like to bounce back a little bit are GMJ and Lopez. I think Theriot is garbage, and only a decent source of SB.

Round 19
1. Dave Bush
2. Brian Fuentes
3. Jason Giambi
4. Boof Bonser
5. Scott Baker
6. Matt Diaz
7. Xavier Nady
8. Manny Parra
9. Jeff Suppan
10. Octavio Dotel
11. Livan Hernandez
12. Chris Capuano
13. Jon Rauch (Winks)
14. Noah Lowry
15. Jason Kubel (Bear)
16. Luke Scott

Winks: Jon Rauch was a pick designed to wait for Chad Cordero to get hurt or traded. I know it's late, and a lot of the guys are Brewer fans, but I would have strayed from Suppan or Capuano. Neither will be a reliable fantasy guy, especially Suppan. Couple of Twins pitchers went in this round, which could be decent. Dave Bush and Manny Parra also went in this round, Parra might have an impact later in the season.

Bear: 4 Brewer pitchers, and the only ones justified are Parra and Bush. Bush is your typical better fantasy player than real player. Meanwhile Capuano and Suppan should be unowned. What about Suppan draws you to draft him. Not his 4.61 lifetime ERA, or his 1.43 lifetime WHIP or his lifetime .56 K/IP. Sure he'll get you 11 wins but at what cost, he kills you in all other phases. 10 game winners are a dime a dozen on the FA wire each year. Dotel was another horrible pick. I do like Diaz and Nady. I already cut Kubel, but he has decent upside potential.

Round 20
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Chris Carpenter (Bear)
3. Micah Owings
4. Reggie Willits (Winks)
5. Jake Westbrook
6. Brendan Harris
7. Dmitri Young
8. Shaun Marcum
9. Ian Kennedy
10. Jacque Jones
11. John Patterson
12. Gio Gonzalez
13. Mark Prior
14. Paul Lo Duca
15. Bob Howry
16. Andre Ethier

Winks: I've already cut Reggie Willits, so that's a wasted pick. Dmitri Young will be good for the first two months, and then fade away. I thought about Ethier here, even though he doesn't start. A lot of these guys being drafted aren't just backups for our fantasy teams, but backups in real life as well, so you're really taking fliers on guys that this point.

Bear: Carpenter is purely a second half run pick and a DL stash. We have two in this league, so I like my move. Ethier is a solid pick as is Kennedy, and Owings. I don't like Young who may split time with Nick Johnson, and John Patterson is years past his fantasy relevance. Plus Patterson only pitched well at RFK, and well, they don't play there anymore. Pass. Gio Gonzalez and Mark Prior could be good sleepers.

Round 21
1. Chuck James
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Mark Ellis
4. Travis Buck
5. Adam Loewen
6. Ervin Santana
7. Julio Lugo
8. Nate Robertson
9. Al Reyes
10. Claudio Vargas
11. Matt Morris
12. Austin Kearns
13. David Riske (Winks)
14. Brandon Backe
15. Scott Olsen (Bear)
16. Jon Garland

Winks: Doing it over, I would have taken Olsen over Riske. I only took Riske just in case Gagne amounted to nothing. Vargas could be alright here.

Bear: Olsen is the Marlins ace. That really isn't saying much but he does have 150 K's in him and could be a surprise candidate to win 12 games. Most people are simply rounding out rosters at this point.....would be a perfect time to get a decent catcher.

Round 22
1. Joey Gathright
2. Shawn Hill (Bear)
3. Tim Wakefield
4. Lyle Overbay (Winks)
5. Chad Qualls
6. Kevin Millwood
7. Nelson Cruz
8. Ryan Church
9. Nick Johnson
10. Ronny Paulino
11. Andy Sonnanstine
12. Doug Davis
13. Carlos Ruiz
14. Henry Owens
15. Peter Moylan
16. Daric Barton

Winks: Not much to say about these last picks. Took Overbay just because he used to be a Brewer.

Bear: Cruz pick was maybe a bit of a stretch, I see him as the 5th OF on the Rangers. I do like Church and Barton to have nice seasons. Shawn Hill was purely an ERA and WHIP buffer as he will provide little else.

Round 23
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joe Crede
4. Coco Crisp
5. Zach Duke
6. Jason Bergmann
7. Ian Stewart
8. Yadier Molina
9. Asdrubal Cabrera
10. Fred Lewis
11. Dallas McPherson
12. Mike Mussina
13. Yuniesky Betancourt (Winks)
14. Milton Bradley
15. Joaquin Benoit (Bear)
16. John Buck

Winks: Jay Bruce is a good pick in this round. Thought Kyle Kendrick would go higher because of the prank that was played on him earlier in the year, I almost took him just because of that. That's why I'm no good at fantasy (although I did win this league last year!)

Bear: Winks keeps talking about how he won the league, he won because of the hot streak he hit at the end of the season winning 6 weeks in a row. It wasn't like he was dominating the season all year long, but sometimes it takes only a couple big weeks to get a win. Jay Bruce is definitely second half of the season guy, he was recently sent down but should be a great talent when recalled later this year.... and he will be recalled, probably sooner than later. If you are gonna own a young Giant OF... don't make it Fred Lewis, make it Rajai Davis.

Round 24
1. Barry Bonds
2. Dioner Navarro (Bear)
3. Randy Winn
4. Kevin Slowey (Winks)
5. Mike Hampton
6. Eddie Guardado
7. Juan Cruz
8. Joe Dillon
9. Bobby Crosby
10. Ray Durham
11. Mike Pelfrey
12. Tony Gwynn
13. Brad Hennessey
14. Russ Springer
15. David Weathers
16. Melvin Mora

Winks: Thought about Bonds, but passed. Someone had to take him though. This is the round where you take guys, "just in case", although Melvin Mora as Mr. Irrelevant in a draft where more than half the the active players in MLB were taken is a solid pick.

Bear: I took Navarro with my last pick, a catcher, and guess what.... Shortly after I was able to grab Carlos Ruiz off of the FA list. Ruiz is a projected top 12 Catcher. Interesting. Mora was Mr. Irrelevant and is actually a great selection. Durham was also a good pick. Gwynn and Dillon are dumb picks because they are likely to split time with Kapler and Gross as well, for 25 games while Cameron is out and after that, they will be virtually useless. The last 10 rounds of drafts are great times to pick some guys that could really fit the "sleeper" mold, to make novelty or humor picks is really dumb. Last year in the final 5 rounds of our draft players like Oliver Perez, Andre Ethier, Alex Gordon, Mike Lowell, Rafael Soriano, Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chris Duncan and Jeff Francis were drafted.

4 comments:

Jessie said...

First of all was this a keeper league? Doesn't seem that way by some of the crazy picks.

Here are the ones I don't understand at all:

*** Guys, just a friendly reminder ... I'm not normally this negative ... I'm actually quite pleasant!



ROUND 1:

Santana over Utley doesn't make sense.

Pujols will likely be shut down sometime this season. He's even saying if his elbow blows out it blows out. Not much confidence there.

Too early for Peavy & Soriano & Crawford to get picked.


ROUND 2


I can't believe Big Papi & Brandon Phillips & Vmart lasted that long.

BEN SHEETS! WTF!!!


ROUND 3


I'm surprised Verlander lasted that long. And Cole Hamels.

I disagree about Maggs being a better pick than Rios.

I agree about Jeter. I wouldn't take him that early, if at all.


ROUND 4


How did Z go before Harang!

Weeks went too early.



ROUND 5


I can't believe McCann & Pence lasted this long ... especially Pence.

Chipper Jones? Yikes. I'd rather start Longoria all year, even if he started out at AAA.

Posada is a head scratcher. If all the good catchers are gone, go for someone like Towles in the later rounds.


ROUND 6


Pierre? Really? And Pudge too.

Furcal was a mistake ... Orlando Cabrera would have been better.


ROUND 7


Halladay lasted that long ... wow.

Dontrelle? Say it ain't so.

Again, you should have gone with Cabrera over Renteria.


ROUND 8


I'm surprised Yovani lasted that long. Cats were taking guys like CARMONA before Yovani? Sheeeeeit.

BILLINGSLEY ... GREAT PICK for real. Same with Matt Cain.


ROUND 9


Snell & Francis going before McGowan is weird.

I'm surprised Kemp lasted that long.


ROUND 10


Griffey should be round 15+

How did Loney last that long?


ROUND 11


Bill Hall went way to early.

MOISES ALOU! MY GOD.

Damon too early.



ROUND 12


DAMN, Soto lasted this long! Nice pick up. This HAS to be a non-keeper league.

If it is a non-keeper, then whoever picked Longoria hopefully has a good 3B already or some room on his bench.



ROUND 13

Cameron should be a late late pick

Harden is too much of an injury risk ... should pick him up later


ROUND 14


I like Towles here if there's nothing else for catchers.

Why go with Marmol when you can go with an actual closer like Brian Wilson?

Matt Garza stinks ... you'd be better off with Zack Greinke even. You should wait & pick up David Price at the Break if you really like young Rays SP.

GEOFF JENKINS?! Egads. That cat shoulda picked up Bourn. Kudos to whoever got Bourn there.


ROUND 15


SCHILLING ... when was the draft exactly???

Broxton ... good pickup.

I don't know about Kent. Or Guthrie. Or DeJesus. Later guys, later.

Escobar might lose his job to the Braves top SS prospect eventually, but at least Escobar can play several positions.


ROUND 16

OK


ROUND 17


Villa was a steal.

Tough break with Rolen.

Nice work on the Kotchman pick


ROUND 18


Milledge ... GOOD.

Zito ... BAD.

RICHIE SEXSON!!! What about Daric Barton?

Maybin's heading for AA for now. So I don't know about that one.

Morales ... a good pick but a bit early. Someone's been doing their homework at least. Maybe this is a keeper league after all.


ROUND 19


David Bush is a TERRIBLE pick. As is Jeff Suppan. As is Cappy.


ROUND 20


Picking Chris Carpenter is TERRIBLE. He'll be on the waiver wire after the draft, plus he's not even a DL candidate right now ... they have him listed as DTD.

Willits ... BAD.

Gio Gonzalez is a good keeper.

Mark Prior? Well at least he pitches at Petco now.


ROUND 21


Jason Schmidt = crap

Vargas & Morris aren't much better, but it IS a 16 team league. Have fun with them. Why not look through prospect lists for promising SP that are coming up in 2008 instead?


ROUND 22

Overbay is a good late rounder.

SOmething tells me they can do better than Millwood, Sonnanstine, & Doug Davis. Where's Cueto & Volquez???

Ronny Paulino is really really bad.


ROUND 23


Wow, Jay Bruce went late.

How did Zach Duke go before Jason Bergman & Mike Mussina?


ROUND 24


Hampton, Dillon, Gwynn, & Weathers. Hmmmmmm.

Winks said...

Hey man, thanks for the review. I'm sure you could tell but the most two important things to remember about this draft, and I should have stated them is that 1) you're right, not a keeper league. and 2) most of us are Brewers fans. Sheets in the 2nd round is ridiculous, but when you like a guy you like a guy I guess. But it's also the reason I took Cameron ten rounds too early. Not saying the picks are justified by any means, just giving some insight on why even though they may have been laughed at, no one was really surprised.

In all, thanks for taking the time to look over our picks. Good luck to you in any leagues you may be in.

One week til opening day! (well, actually 8 hours, if you're into the Red Sox or A's).

Jessie said...

Cool cool ... yeah I'm by no means an expert, but there were just a few picks that stuck out. There were also some very good ones.

The main thing is to be happy with who you have.

Picking guys from the teams of Brewers' opponents used to drop a load of cognitive dissonance on my brain, but I've gotten over that. When you're in as many leagues as I am, you pretty much have a little of everybody, so it all evens out somehow.

Good article ... a nice break from the norm.

If you guys ever want to talk more about fantasy baseball, just email me:

heycubs.kissmyass@gmail.com


Hey Winks, I'm ur buddy who had the Brewer blog going but took it down! Go CRew!!!

Jessie said...

My Bucky Channel name is Jessie Orosco.

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